Confirm: The Rise, Evolution and Legacy of Kenya’s Notorious Nakuru Gang

Along the way, you get a call from a random number. The caller sounds distressed, explaining that he has mistakenly sent money to your number. Your phone receives a message that looks like a transaction confirmation. He politely asks you to reverse the money.

You are not particularly suspicious. After all, mistakes happen, and you would want someone to do the same for you.

But something is wrong. The message is not genuine. The money was never sent. What appears to be an innocent request is part of a deception designed to separate you from your hard-earned income.

Now imagine that the same neighbourhood has become increasingly uncomfortable to walk through. Shopkeepers close earlier than usual. Parents worry about their children returning from school. Residents hesitate to report suspicious activities because they fear being identified.

For some people living in Nakuru, this is not merely an imagined scenario. It reflects the kind of Nakuru insecurity that has surrounded the criminal network known as the Confirm Gang.

The story of Confirm is not simply about a criminal gang. It is also about the circumstances that allow criminal networks to emerge, recruit young people, expand their influence and become difficult for communities to escape.

To understand how Nakuru arrived at this point, we must return to the beginning.

The Origins: From Mobile-Money Fraud to Organised Crime

It is difficult to imagine that a name that would eventually become associated with fear and violence in Nakuru was once linked to something as ordinary as receiving money on a mobile phone.

M-Pesa had become part of everyday life. People used it to pay bills, send money home, buy groceries and settle small debts. It made life easier, particularly for families who depended on mobile transactions to get through the day. But, as its popularity grew, so did the opportunities for those looking to take advantage of people’s trust.

In Nakuru, one group reportedly found an opportunity in this growing dependence on mobile money. According to Nation’s investigation into the gang’s origin, it took its name from the M-Pesa notification “Confirm, you have received…” The M-Pesa fraud that followed relied on that familiarity, which is why it was so hard to spot. The same investigation traces the group’s start to 2012, when it carried out robberies in middle-class estates in Nakuru.

In February 2025, Nakuru County Commissioner Erastus Mbui cautioned administrators about the Confirm extortion ring, which was defrauding residents through mobile-money transactions. He spoke at a public baraza in Kivumbini, Nakuru town.

For the people living there, this was not simply a story about clever tricks played on mobile-phone users. It was about neighbours losing money, growing unease and the uncomfortable realisation that criminal activity was taking root within their own communities.

By August 2022, the picture had become considerably darker. Citizen Digital reported the arrest of a man police described as the leader of the Confirm Gang, whose network was suspected of a string of crimes and murders. The group had moved far beyond mobile-money fraud into organised crime in Kenya, attracting the attention of security agencies.

There is something particularly unsettling about this transformation. A criminal network that reportedly found its footing by exploiting something as ordinary as a mobile-money transaction had become associated with a much deeper security problem.

For the residents of Nakuru, the consequences would extend far beyond lost money. What followed would involve fear, violence, fractured communities and a prolonged struggle to reclaim neighbourhoods that people simply wanted to call home.

2016 to 2022: When the Problem Became Impossible to Ignore

In December 2016, Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph Nkaissery named Confirm Group among illegal criminal gangs in a gazette notice, according to The Standard. Naming the group in a gazette notice was significant because it acknowledged that the problem had moved beyond isolated criminal incidents. It also provided a formal basis for targeted law-enforcement action against the organisation.

However, declaring a criminal organisation illegal does not automatically dismantle its networks. According to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, around 100 members were arrested and arraigned in court within two months in 2019. Yet the group continued to feature in reports of criminal activity.

The repeated arrests raised an important question: why was it so difficult to eliminate a criminal network that authorities had identified years earlier? Part of the answer lies in the difference between arresting individual suspects and addressing the social and economic conditions that allow criminal networks to recruit new members.

A total of 128 suspects were arrested over the Nakuru killings, and police reported recovering 436 phones and 40 laptops, among other items. Police reported that in late July 2022, four suspected members were shot dead during a security operation in the Barut area of Nakuru County. Police said officers responding to a tip-off saw young people attacking passers-by with arrows before opening fire. These developments illustrated the intensity of the government’s response, and that the group had become a significant public-security concern.

The Human Cost: When an Entire Community Lives in Fear

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the Confirm story is not the organisation itself but the consequences of its activities for ordinary people. A criminal network can operate for years, but the people who pay the highest price are often those who have no connection to it.

The loss of personal security. A neighbourhood should be a place where people feel comfortable walking home, running businesses, visiting neighbours and allowing children to move around safely. When criminal activity becomes persistent, these ordinary freedoms begin to disappear. Residents become suspicious of strangers. Businesses may close earlier. Families adjust their movements around concerns about insecurity. Fear becomes part of everyday life.

Fear of this kind weakens the relationship between communities and the institutions responsible for protecting them.

The destruction of livelihoods. Small businesses depend on predictable environments. A shopkeeper who fears robbery, a trader who cannot safely close late or a customer who avoids certain streets represents more than an individual security concern. When people are afraid to conduct ordinary transactions, businesses lose customers, economic activity suffers and opportunities become more limited. Mobile-money fraud also undermines confidence in one of the services that has become essential to everyday Kenyan life.

The psychological burden on families. Parents living in affected neighbourhoods face difficult questions. How do they protect their children from criminal influences? How do they respond when their children associate with people involved in illegal activities? And what happens when young people begin abandoning education in pursuit of money and status?

A June 2023 Newsday investigation included accounts from former Confirm members who described how peer pressure and the attraction of quick money influenced their involvement. The accounts also described young people abandoning school and becoming increasingly absorbed in criminal activity. These are individual accounts, not a complete explanation of why young people join gangs. Nevertheless, they reveal the vulnerability of children growing up without sufficient support, supervision or economic opportunities.

The danger of innocent people becoming casualties. Perhaps the greatest tragedy of organised criminal activity is that its consequences rarely remain confined to those directly involved. Even efforts to restore security can carry devastating risks when operations take place in populated neighbourhoods. Protecting communities must therefore involve both effective law enforcement and respect for the lives and rights of innocent residents.

Several Gangs, One Pattern: What Is Happening in Nakuru Today

Reporting from the Kenya News Agency names several suspected criminal outfits operating in Nakuru: Confirm, Mauki, Nyuki, Gaza, Jerusalem and Boston Brothers. The reporting does not establish that these groups share an origin or split from one another, so this account does not treat them as breakaway factions of Confirm. What they share is the pattern: several groups, operating under different names, in the same neighbourhoods.

This complicates the security situation. When several criminal groups operate in the same neighbourhoods, dismantling one organisation does not necessarily eliminate the wider problem. Some members may continue operating independently, others may join different networks, and new groups may emerge. This is why the question of whether Confirm has been dismantled cannot be answered simply by looking at the number of arrests made against people associated with that name.

For several years, there have been repeated announcements of arrests and security operations targeting suspected Confirm members. However, the group has continued to feature in reports of criminal activity.

On April 16, 2024, Citizen Digital reported the arrest of at least 16 members of the Confirm Gang in Nakuru. Some were minors, the youngest reportedly as young as 12. The arrests raised serious questions about child protection and the responsibility of communities and institutions to intervene before vulnerable children become involved in organised crime.

Investigations have documented how teenagers were drawn into criminal networks, and criminal recruitment of young people remains the central question for Nakuru.

More recently, on April 22, 2026, Citizen Digital reported that police in Nakuru West had arrested two men suspected of belonging to Confirm. According to the police account, the suspects were linked to alleged robberies and violent offences, and investigations were ongoing at the time of reporting. This matters because it suggests that, despite years of security operations, individuals suspected of association with Confirm were still appearing in police reports. However, it would be misleading to conclude that the original Confirm organisation remains intact in its earlier form. The available reporting points to several groups, changing affiliations and recurring criminal activity.

A note on the sources: as of November 2026, the latest specific report identified in our research is the April 2026 arrest report. We do not have independently verified evidence establishing the current size, leadership or organisational structure of Confirm.

The Bigger Question: Are We Addressing the Problem or Only Its Symptoms?

There is no question that communities deserve protection from robbery, intimidation and violent crime. People should be able to walk home, operate businesses and raise their children without fearing criminal networks. Law enforcement has an important responsibility to investigate criminal activity, protect witnesses, arrest suspects and ensure that those convicted of offences are held accountable through the justice system.

But the story of Confirm also presents a difficult question about the conditions that allow young people to enter criminal networks. Why does a teenager abandon school and become attracted to a criminal lifestyle? Why does the promise of quick money become more appealing than education or legitimate employment? Why do some neighbourhoods struggle to provide young people with safe recreational spaces, mentorship and meaningful opportunities?

These questions do not excuse criminal behaviour. Poverty does not automatically produce criminals, and most young people growing up in disadvantaged communities never join gangs. Nevertheless, ignoring unemployment, educational exclusion, family instability, substance misuse and the absence of meaningful opportunities would leave important parts of the problem unaddressed.

There is also a responsibility to create pathways for rehabilitation. Young people who have disengaged from criminal networks need opportunities to return to education, acquire vocational skills, find legitimate employment and rebuild relationships with their communities. Those who have committed offences must still face appropriate legal accountability. Rehabilitation and accountability should not be treated as opposing ideas. They can, and should, exist together.

Beyond Confirm: Rebuilding the Communities Left Behind

The history of Confirm is ultimately a story about more than crime. It is about neighbourhoods whose residents have had to navigate insecurity, families who have worried about their children, victims whose lives have been affected and young people whose futures have been shaped by destructive choices. It is also a reminder that the consequences of organised crime do not disappear when a particular group loses its influence.

Communities still have to rebuild trust, restore economic confidence and create environments in which children can imagine futures beyond survival. This requires cooperation between families, schools, religious institutions, community organisations, local leadership and government agencies. It requires investment in education, youth development, mental-health support, vocational training and legitimate economic opportunities. Most importantly, it requires listening to the people who live in these communities. They understand the challenges in ways that statistics and official statements cannot always capture.

At Ubuntu Village, the philosophy of I am because we are reminds us that individual well-being cannot be separated from the well-being of the wider community. That philosophy does not ask us to overlook wrongdoing. It asks us to understand the human conditions surrounding it and to recognise our shared responsibility for creating safer, healthier communities.

Confirm may have begun as a name associated with a mobile-money deception, but its history became a much larger warning about what happens when criminal networks find opportunities to grow among vulnerable young people. The question facing Nakuru is therefore not simply whether Confirm can be defeated. It is whether the community, its institutions and its leaders can build something strong enough to ensure that another generation does not follow the same path.

Because a safer Nakuru will not be measured only by the number of arrests made. It will also be measured by the number of young people who find meaningful reasons to choose a different future.

If this account helped you see how a neighbourhood can be lost to fear and then rebuilt, share it with someone who needs that understanding.

Sources & Research

1. The Standard (30 December 2016), “Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph Nkaissery reveals 90 deadly criminal gangs in Kenya.”
2. Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, Risk Bulletin #9 (June–July 2020), “Kenyan gang members are facing increased police extortion.”
3. Kenya News Agency (16 February 2025), “Government cautions administrators over security.”
4. Nation (undated), “Revealed: The origin of the dreaded ‘Confirm gang’.”
5. Kenya News Agency (undated), “Kasarani OCPD appointed Nakuru commander over escalating criminal activities.”
6. Citizen Digital (28 June 2022), “128 suspects arrested over Nakuru killings as police identify ‘Confirm’ gang ring leader.”
7. Citizen Digital (3 August 2022), “Dreaded ‘Confirm Gang’ leader arrested in Nakuru.”
8. Newsday (19 June 2023), “Sex, partying, crime and murder: An insider account of Confirm gang.”
9. Citizen Digital (16 April 2024), “16 members of dreaded ‘Confirm Gang’ nabbed in Nakuru, minors among them.”
10. Citizen Digital (22 April 2026), “Police arrest two suspected Confirm gang members in Nakuru.”